October 2025 Monthly Review

A Look Back

The above title comes from a folksy song written and sung by Stephen Stills, from the famous harmonizing band of Crosby, Stills & Nash. It was released in 1970 and became his biggest hit single, peaking at #14 on the Billboard list. It was later recorded by other stars, including Luther Vandross and Bob Seger. I heard it recently on a sunny Fall drive from Punxsutawney and it made me ponder…that’s not such a bad way of looking at things in everyday life. Whether it’s because of all the social media and other technology-driven advertising, or just the natural order of things, maybe we have gotten a little lost in our pursuit of perfection…or the only possible best answer. So, if you can’t afford the new, pricey automobile, take care of the five-year-old model you currently own that’s doing its job just fine. And, instead of worrying about whatever the media darling stock of the day is, have a reasonable, low-cost, diversified approach to investing. Love the one you’re with!

It was mostly treats with very few tricks in the month of October. The large-cap S&P 500 delivered a strong 2.34% return, bringing the YTD number to over 17.50%. It’s been six straight up months for that index after a negative April that saw the initial tariff announcements from President Trump. International stocks continue to do well, with the Emerging Markets index up nearly 33% for the year. Core bonds were up .62% for the month and are now positive by 6.80% in 2025. The long-term average is around 5% annually. Commodities have provided a positive diversification, while precious metals like gold and silver have produced fantastic returns this year. Gold is up over 50% and silver is even better with over 60% returns. The Fed met in late October and announced an anticipated .25% cut to the Fed Funds rate, bringing the effective rate down to 3.87%. That short-term rate stood at 5.33% as recently as August of 2024. Chairman Powell has consistently stated that the group will be data driven and respond accordingly. There is likely to be another cut in December and potentially two or three in 2026. We shall see...

A Look Ahead

As we move into the holiday season, we want nothing more than to have good thoughts and good cheer. We have many reasons to have both. Financial markets have been particularly rewarding over the last three years…and really the last 16 or so, if you eliminate 2022. It’s been quite the ride in general, and we have seen it accelerate lately with the enthusiasm around all things related to AI, or artificial intelligence. We believe that there will continue to be many benefits that result from the efficiencies generated from AI. The healthcare field and the idea of quicker and more accurate diagnoses will be literally lifesaving. However, as often happens, the cart may be just a little ahead of the horse. Much of the rally this year is concentrated in tech-related companies. Including these companies, the technology sector makes up over 41% of the S&P 500. The index itself has become a growth-oriented, technology heavy index. That represents quite the change from 2010, when Exxon Mobil, AT&T, General Electric, IBM and Chevron were among the biggest names. That’s not a bad thing. It’s change. Historically, change is not linear. It comes with stops and starts. Great enthusiasm tempered with some reality. For now, we are starting to trim profits where we can, while looking at asset classes that have more of a quality tilt. Being reasonable makes sense…and so does loving the one you’re with!